Can LLM Agents Improve Imperfect Earth System Model Parameterizations?
Kara D. Lamb
Abstract
Earth system models (ESMs) rely on parameterizations to represent unresolved processes such as convection, cloud microphysics, and turbulence. However, translating advances in physical understanding into stable, validated parameterizations and integrating them into ESMs often takes years. Agentic AI could accelerate this process and enable more systematic exploration of design choices. Using warm-rain collision-coalescence as a test case, we evaluate agents' ability to synthesize scientific literature, reimplement published bulk parameterizations, and propose new functional forms as differentiable JAX code. We compare conventional parameterizations, data-driven emulators, and agent-generated closures against high-fidelity superdroplet simulations, repeating unattended experiments across ten language models. With expert guidance or iterative feedback, agents produced executable, differentiable, mass-conserving code, although unattended performance depended strongly on the scheme and language model. Iterative feedback lowered median rollout error for eight of ten models. Retuned physical schemes matched or outperformed many learned parameterizations at substantially lower computational cost, but two of 100 unattended agent-generated closures achieved slightly lower rain-mass error than the most accurate retuned scheme on held-out simulations.