Uncertainty-Aware Joint Generative Modeling of Fault Event Sequences and Sensor Time Series in Solar PV Plants
Jiayu Huang, Boyang Xu, Yongming Liu, Hao Yan
Abstract
This paper presents a multimodal generative model designed to simulate a solar energy plant system for predictive maintenance and fault prediction. We propose a novel approach to enhance system generation through conditional generation by leveraging both event sequences and time-series data and improve next event prediction. The framework employs a Transformer Hawkes Process (THP) to encode event data and an iTransformer to encode time-series data, integrated via a co-attention mechanism that effectively captures cross-modal dependencies between discrete events and continuous signals. From these integrated representations, we employ two specialized decoders for simulation: a Conditional Latent Diffusion Model (CLDM) for modeling future sensor trajectories and the Score Matching-based UnceRtainty quantiFication for Transformer Hawkes Process (SMURF-THP) for high-fidelity event prediction. This dual-decoder strategy supports uncertainty-aware, history-conditioned simulation by rolling the model forward for a specified number of generation iterations, producing finite stochastic scenarios rather than deterministic extrapolations over the full observational record. Evaluated on a comprehensive dataset from the Red Rock Solar Site in Arizona, our approach improves aggregate event-prediction F1 relative to baselines and supports applications in predictive maintenance, fault detection, and energy optimization for solar power systems.