Ensemble Classification and Cancer-Specific Gene Signatures from Quality-Aware Hybrid Gene Selection in TCGA RNA-Seq data
Tareque Mohmud Chowdhury, Abu Raihan Mostofa Kamal
Abstract
Gene-expression classifiers of cancer type are usually developed and validated within one cohort using random splits. Starting from a quality-aware hybrid Boruta selector from earlier work, we developed and evaluated ensemble classifiers and cancer-specific gene signatures. Using 10,469 TCGA tumours of 33 types, we compared five learners and three ensembles under decision rules fixed in advance, reran the selection in site-grouped cross-validation, transferred a breast-cancer subtype panel to 3273 tumours of the independent SCAN-B cohort, and built five-gene stage~I tumour versus adjacent-normal panels for nine cancer types. Logistic regression (LR) was the most accurate and best-calibrated single learner (balanced accuracy 0.943 on the locked test set). Stacking added at most 0.006 with 1000 genes but improved on LR in every fold with a minimal 100-gene panel; a hierarchical model did not reduce within-group confusion. Site-grouped validation lowered balanced accuracy by 0.027, almost entirely in colon and rectal cancer (0.008 without them and the untestable LAML). On SCAN-B, the subtype panel reached 0.855, close to the 50 PAM50 genes (0.876). Stage~I panels reached ROC AUC >= 0.99 in held-out patients and detected most later-stage tumours. Ensembles help most with a minimal panel; with 1000 genes, a calibrated linear model suffices.