Does Scaling Toward AGI Depend on What System-1 Lets System-2 Execute?
Qi Wang, Yun Qu, Lizhou Cai, Heming Zou, Haoang Chi, Yiqin Lv, Xiang Li, Haiyan Feng, Mengyu Ge, Yize Geng, Yuhang Jiang, Yixiu Mao, Xiangyang Ji
Abstract
Progress toward artificial general intelligence (AGI) has largely relied on scaling a resource-intensive executive, System-2, through larger models, more data and compute, longer reasoning, and more agents. We ask whether the next stage may come instead from co-designing it with System-1, a lightweight, semantically aware predictor that evaluates candidate interactions before execution, so that System-2 acts only on those worth their cost. Our answer is a qualified yes. We study \textit{conditional interaction}, a predict--gate--execute--update loop: System-1 estimates each candidate's utility, System-2 executes those admitted by an adaptive threshold, and the outcomes update System-1. The loop spans training, test-time reasoning, adaptive decision-making, and agentic tool use, with utility and cost defined by the application. Under ideal screening and equal execution costs, execution compute falls by a factor approaching $1/ρ_u$, where $ρ_u$ is the density of utility-relevant interactions (cost-weighted when costs differ); prediction errors, exploration, and distribution shift reduce the saving. We bound selection regret by predictor error and the utility margin. These results motivate our central hypothesis: $ρ_u$ is a measurable coordinate of scaling efficiency and makes informative compute a better description of scaling than total compute.