LUMOS: Tracing Parametric Knowledge from Training Data to Behavioral Outputs in LLMs
Seoyeon Ye, Gayoung Kim, Jiyoung Hong, Sookyung Kim, Hyunsoo Cho
Abstract
Current analyses of LLMs' parametric knowledge are largely output-centric, drawing conclusions about what a model knows without verifying what it was actually trained on. This leaves fundamental questions, such as whether a correct response reflects genuine generalization or rote memorization, grounded in speculation rather than evidence. To resolve these ambiguities, we introduce LUMOS, a diagnostic framework that traces knowledge along the causal chain from training-data exposure to behavioral output, leveraging OLMo 2 with its fully transparent training corpus. By grounding analysis in verified exposure, we reveal that models internally encode rare facts with high separability (84%) yet fail to express them behaviorally (54%), though this retrieval gap narrows with scale. Furthermore, when models are asked to self-reflect on their own answers, they perform reliably on trained content (83%) but drop to random-baseline levels (49%) on unseen content. This collapse persists even under chain-of-thought prompting, which inflates confidence signals rather than improving calibration. Collectively, these findings demonstrate that incorporating the training-data axis into LLM evaluation transforms speculative diagnoses into verifiable claims, and we advocate that this axis should be a standard component of knowledge assessment in LLMs.