Diffusion-Based Rollouts as a Stabilization Mechanism for Long-Horizon Environmental Forecasting
Marina Vicens-Miquel, Amy McGovern, Aaron J. Hill, Efi Foufoula-Georgiou, Samuel S. P. Shen
Abstract
Extending forecast lead times while maintaining predictive skill remains a major challenge in environmental forecasting. We investigate diffusion-based rollouts as a stabilization mechanism for recursive forecasting using low-dimensional water-level time series and high-dimensional precipitation fields. Across both modalities, diffusion suppresses recursive error growth, with the largest stabilization occurring where deterministic rollouts are most unstable. However, stabilization does not guarantee forecast fidelity. In the water-level experiments, forecasts progressively lose event-level fidelity as the rollout loses access to external predictive information, and trajectory-level comparisons show that diffusion can remain numerically stable while contracting toward central values and exhibiting reduced variability. In the precipitation experiments, which retain conditioning from numerical weather prediction throughout the rollout, diffusion better preserves spatial organization and event-detection skill. Together, these contrasting experiments indicate that diffusion can control recursive error amplification, while its practical benefit also depends on the predictive information available to constrain future evolution.